As a boy, I thought I had a superpower for a few days. I was standing outside of my parent’s house, and I heard a noise. I was able to tell the direction the sound was coming from. I seriously thought that everyone else could only hear sounds, and I alone could determine the direction the sound came from. Sadly, I realized a few days later that everyone had this superpower. One of the big players in artificial intelligence (AI) has a superpower and is propelling the stock market forward, but for how long?
What is artificial intelligence?
AI involves using technologies to create machines that can mimic human thinking. These machines can be programmed to make decisions, carry out detailed tasks, and, most interestingly, learn and adapt from their failures.
As children, we learned by trial and error and repeating activities several times until we mastered them. For example, when we teach our kids to ride a bike, we don’t tell them to move their feet in circles; we give them a little push and tell them to keep the bike balanced and straight. They fall a few times but get better each time they fail. That’s what AI does. Each time you refresh AI to get a new response to your original question, it learns from the previous cycles and gets smarter each time because it remembers what it discovered last time.
So, which companies are winning with this AI craze?
There are several, but none compare to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). Its profits jumped 486% in 2023, and it predicts it will keep growing. Nvidia is known for creating computer graphics cards for high-end video games, but its AI chips have made it one of only four companies worth over $2 trillion (along with Apple, Microsoft, and the oil company Saudi Aramco). A few years ago, it realized its computer chips could multitask better than the computers they were in, so it started researching what else its chips could do, leading to their use in AI.
The investment concern is that NVIDIA has been one of the main drivers of the overall stock market. Just this first quarter, it accounted for 24% of the S&P 500 Index return. They don’t have a monopoly, but they sell 80% of the world’s AI computer chips, meaning they can nearly name their price and get it. It could slow down the stock market’s fastest horse if their competitors begin making similar chips and cut into their profits.
Google, one of NVIDIA’s top customers, has begun making more of its own AI chips, called Axion, to lower its artificial intelligence costs. Google hopes this new chip reduces its dependence on outside vendors like NVIDIA and Intel, making it more profitable.
Right now, NVIDIA has a superpower. They have the best AI chips in the world at a time when artificial intelligence is ramping up. However, their superpower runs into problems when competitors begin to make quality chips.
There is a chance their superpower is about to weaken. A Barron’s article published on April 9th discusses how D.A. Davidson thinks that NVIDIA will lose so many chip sales from Google and Meta that its stock could drop by as much as 30%. I don’t know if that is true, but there is a risk of a falling NVIDIA stock that could also pull the overall market down. This is another reason why diversification is so important.
My Mom didn’t beat around the bush when I told her I had a superpower. She looked at me side-eyed and asked what it was. When I told her I could tell the direction a sound came from, she rolled her eyes and said, “I’m sorry to tell you, but everyone can do that.” I quickly found out everyone could master that trick. I think NVIDIA is finding out that many other companies can master their trick, too.
Have a blessed week!
Dr. Richard Baker, AIF®, is the founder and executive wealth advisor at Fervent Wealth Management.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Opinions voiced above are for general information only & not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any person. All performance cited is historical & is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
The economic forecast outlined in this material may not develop as predicted & there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Fervent Wealth Management is a financial management and services entity in Springfield, Missouri.
