On the first snap in the first practice, our scrawny 10-year-old sacked the coach’s quarterback son. The coach chewed out the OL. On the second snap, our son sacks the coach’s son again. This time the coach chews out his son and says he needs to get rid of the football sooner. Our son wanted to play wide receiver, but the coaches put their sons in the premier positions, but our boy was starting the year out strong, just like stocks this year.
We just reached the 100th trading day of 2023, and it’s been a solid 100 days for stocks. Through that 100th trading day, the S&P 500 was positive more than 8%, much better than the negative 17% on last year’s 100th trading day. A strong market start often means a good rest of the year.
Since 1950, the rest of the year has averaged over 9% in the years when the S&P 500 has been up at least 7% in the first 100 trading days. That is almost twice as good as normal from June 1 through year-end. Solid finishes usually follow strong starts.
These strong finishes are pretty consistent. After these strong starts, the S&P 500 was positive for 23 of 26 years. Of course, there are no guarantees in the stock market, but a stable pattern over seventy years gives me confidence that the year will end well. LPL feels like stocks could end the year 5% higher than where we are now.
That doesn’t mean June won’t be bouncy because it probably will be. The S&P 500 is struggling to overcome the 4,200-point resistance level, and the technology sector has been overbought. There could be a temporary pullback in June, but that is figured in the end of the estimates. If there is a short-term pullback, it will give investors an entry point opportunity.
The market will navigate June with professionals like me taking advantage of the short-term pullback. Of course, a short recession is still possible, but stocks will likely have a strong second-half story as inflation continues to fall.
On the third snap of the year, the quarterback sees our son closing in and quickly tosses the ball to the running back on the opposite side of the field. Our boy runs all the way around the line of scrimmage and tackles the assistant coach’s running back son from behind for a loss. The head coach walks up and stands over our son and says, “Baker, tomorrow you are on offense!”
A good start often leads to a great finish.
Have a blessed week!
Dr. Richard Baker, AIF®, is the founder and executive wealth advisor at Fervent Wealth Management.
Fervent Wealth Management is a financial management and services entity in Springfield, Missouri.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Opinions voiced above are for general information only & not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any person. All performance cited is historical & is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged & can’t be invested in directly.
The economic forecast outlined in this material may not develop as predicted & there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
