This past Monday, my wife and I took our kids to Silver Dollar City for the evening. Silver Dollar City is a 61-acre amusement park in Branson, Missouri, themed around the 1880s. During Christmas, the theme park displays over 6.5 million lights! My daughter, now eleven, wanted to ride every rollercoaster she could as soon as she was tall enough to do so. My son, who is now nine, not so much.
Well, this trip to the park was different. My son evaluated the “risks and rewards” of riding the rides and decided the rewards were worth the risks…even though part of the risk was riding the rollercoasters at night.
As the end of the year draws near, the market is behaving unpredictably, offering a confusing mix of signals as investors try to close out what has been a strong year overall. In 2024, the extremes in market performance became more pronounced. Between 2000 and 2023, U.S. stocks already outpaced foreign stocks by more than double. Now, based on MSCI indexes, they’ve continued to surge ahead, posting a 29% gain compared with under 9% outside the U.S.
This continued lead is partly due to the U.S. dollar’s ongoing strength and the rising influence of the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Nvidia—whose combined weight in the S&P 500 has grown from about a quarter at the end of 2023 to roughly a third today. Their massive gains have been so dominant that, despite benefiting from the “Trump trade,” small U.S. companies in the S&P SmallCap 600 have still fallen behind.
It seems that no one cares about valuation anymore. It’s not just that investors believe in AI and the U.S. economy—they don’t seem concerned about how much they’re paying, even though price ultimately affects future returns. For years, value stocks have trailed behind. As I write this, value stocks have taken a hit with over 11 consecutive down days and the S&P 500 Value Index lost about 4%. In contrast, the S&P 500 Growth Index rose 4.6% over that same stretch. The gap between the enthusiasm for growth stocks and the disregard for value is striking.
A similar pattern can be seen when comparing stocks and bonds. The earnings yield—basically the flip side of the price-to-earnings ratio—is barely higher than the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. That means stocks are offering their smallest premium over long-term bonds since the period after the dot-com bubble. It’s not just that investors prefer good companies; they’re happy to pay almost any price for them.
As the year concludes, it’s clear that the market has entered a phase where traditional metrics and benchmarks are being overshadowed by optimism and an unrelenting chase for growth. While this pattern of paying almost any price for the promise of future returns has fueled extraordinary gains, it’s equally left the market in a precarious position.
I’m continuing to take a neutral position on stocks, leaning slightly toward U.S. markets and growth-focused companies while still holding a balanced mix of large and small caps. Even so, we acknowledge that stocks could slip a bit in the near term since investor optimism is already high and markets have priced in a lot of good news—even as political tensions rise globally.
On the fixed-income side, preferred securities valuations continue to remain attractive. Core bond sectors like U.S. Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities, and investment-grade corporate bonds may offer a better balance of risk and reward compared to core plus sectors.
Only time will answer whether investors will continue to brush aside valuations and fundamental measures—or be forced to reckon with them. As we turn the page into a new year, it’s worth remembering that even the most fashionable narratives eventually face the reality of returns and risks. Much like my son did at the theme park this week, maybe it’s time to take a step back and re-evaluate your risks.
Have a blessed week!
Joe Shearrer is Vice President and Wealth Advisor at Fervent Wealth Management.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Opinions voiced above are for general information only & not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any person. All performance cited is historical & is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
The economic forecast outlined in this material may not develop as predicted & there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Fervent Wealth Management is a financial management and services entity in Springfield, Missouri.
